| 摘要: |
| 目的 城镇化影响到农业系统诸多要素，科学探究城镇化对农业系统的影响对于实现城镇化与农业的协调发展具有积极意义。方法 文章以黄土高原县域为研究对象，首先基于暴露度—敏感性—适应能力框架构建农业系统脆弱性评价指标体系，分析了2000—2018年黄土高原农业系统脆弱性时空演变格局；其次采用情景重置法分别探究了人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化背景下农业系统脆弱性演变特征，并由此探讨了不同城镇化变化强度下农业系统脆弱性的变化规律。结果 （1）黄土高原农业系统脆弱性呈东西两侧高、中间低的空间格局。时间上，农业系统脆弱性明显降低，系统发展趋势好转。（2）人口城镇化、土地城镇化增加了农业系统脆弱性，这主要是乡村劳动力及耕地资源减少所致。经济城镇化背景下农业系统脆弱性下降明显，这主要得益于农业机械化水平的提高。在人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化综合作用下，黄土高原农业系统脆弱性有所减少，且减少县域集中于研究区中西部。（3）人口城镇化、土地城镇化增加农业系统脆弱性。随着人口城镇化变化幅度的扩大，农业系统脆弱性变化幅度呈逐渐下降趋势。当土地城镇化变化幅度增加时，农业系统脆弱性变化幅度呈先减少后增加趋势。经济城镇化使其降低，随经济城镇化变化幅度的扩大，其变化幅度呈先增大后减少的变化趋势。结论 城镇化对农业系统脆弱性的影响是人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化综合作用的结果，2000—2018年黄土高原城镇化显著降低农业系统脆弱性。研究结果有助于发挥城镇化引擎作用，实现农业现代化发展。 |
| 关键词: 农业系统 脆弱性 城镇化 演变 黄土高原 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20240710 |
| 分类号:F327;F299.27 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“黄土高原粮食生产空间之重构：过程、效应和机理”（42171197） |
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| THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE LOESS PLATEAU UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF URBANIZATION |
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Li Mengfei1, Tan Yuanhui1, Ma Yaozhuang1, Liu Xiaolin1, Wang Yibin1, Li Fei2,3
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1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, Shanxi, China;2.School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049, Shanxi, China;3.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127,Shanxi, China
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| Abstract: |
| Urbanization affects many elements of the agricultural system, and scientific exploration of the impact of urbanization on the agricultural system is of positive significance for achieving coordinated development between urbanization and agriculture. This research took counties on the Loess Plateau as the research object, constructed an agricultural system vulnerability evaluation index system based on the exposure-sensitivity-adaptability framework, and analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of agricultural system vulnerability on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2018; then, the scenario reset method was used to explore the evolution characteristics of agricultural system vulnerability under the background of population urbanization, land urbanization, and economic urbanization, and thus to explore the changes in agricultural system vulnerability under different urbanization intensity. The results were indicated as follows. (1) The vulnerability of the agricultural system in the Loess Plateau showed a spatial pattern of high on both sides and low in the middle. In terms of time, the vulnerability of the agricultural system significantly decreased, and the trend of system development improved. (2) Population urbanization and land urbanization increased the vulnerability of the agricultural system, mainly due to a decrease in rural labor and arable land resources. Under the background of economic urbanization, the vulnerability of the agricultural system significantly decreased, mainly due to the improvement of agricultural mechanization level. Under the comprehensive effects of population urbanization, land urbanization, and economic urbanization, the vulnerability of the agricultural system in the Loess Plateau had been reduced, and the reduce counties mainly distributed in the central and western regions of the study area. (3) Population urbanization and land urbanization increased the vulnerability of agricultural systems. With the expansion of population urbanization, the vulnerability of the agricultural system was gradually decreasing. When the magnitude of land urbanization changes increased, the vulnerability of the agricultural system showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In summary, the impact of urbanization on the vulnerability of agricultural systems is the result of the comprehensive effects of population urbanization, land urbanization, and economic urbanization. From 2000 to 2018, urbanization on the Loess Plateau significantly reduced the vulnerability of agricultural systems. The research results contribute to leveraging the role of urbanization as an engine and achieving modernization of agriculture. |
| Key words: agricultural system vulnerability urbanization evolution the Loess Plateau |
