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引用本文:王文青,王建忠,王斌.新冠疫情下药农种植决策影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2021,42(7):137~147
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新冠疫情下药农种植决策影响因素分析
王文青,王建忠,王斌
河北农业大学经济管理学院,保定 071001
摘要:
目的 为探讨药农对新冠疫情需求中药材品种的种植决策行为及其影响因素,为疫情短缺中药材资源稳产保供提供决策参考。方法 文章根据农户有限理性理论和生产要素理论构建分析框架,选择金银花、黄芩、连翘和柴胡4个新冠疫情需求品种,基于道地产区454个药农样本,采用多元无序Logit模型进行实证分析。结果 (1)小规模药农和大规模药农均倾向于“面积不变”决策,中等规模药农倾向于“面积扩大”决策。(2)价格预期增加、劳动力投入容易、土地投入容易、加入组织、技术投入容易、风险偏好对药农种植决策行为有显著正向影响;是否兼业、种植面积、种植年限对药农种植决策行为有显著负向影响。(3)不同规模药农决策行为的影响因素有所差异。其中,与企业订单种植对小规模药农有显著正向影响;价格预期增加、政策支持对中等规模药农有显著正向影响,而人工费用高、技术获取难对中等规模药农有显著负向影响;价格预期增加对大规模药农有显著正向影响,而人工费用高、土地流转费高和筹资难对大规模药农有显著负向影响。结论 针对新冠疫情需求中药材品种,药农有扩大种植面积的主观意愿,但受到客观生产要素投入的制约,且不同规模药农制约的因素有所不同。应对不同规模药农制定不同方案,引导其扩大种植面积,为疫情短缺中药材资源稳产保供。
关键词:  全球新冠疫情  药农  种植决策行为  价格收益  生产要素投入  多元Logit模型
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210716
分类号:F326.12
基金项目:河北省现代农业产业技术体系中药材产业创新团队建设项目(HBCT2018060301);河北省教育厅省级研究生创新资助项目“金融精准扶贫支持河北省特色农业协作创新机制研究——以中药材产业为例”(CXZZBS2019104)
ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS OF PLANTING DECISION OF PHARMACEUTICAL FARMERS UNDER COVID-19
Wang Wenqing, Wang Jianzhong, Wang Bin
College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, Hebei, China
Abstract:
This research aims to explore the planting decision behavior and influencing factors of Chinese medicinal materials needed by drug farmers for COVID-19, so as to provide reference for the decision making of Chinese medicinal materials resources in shortage of COVID-19. According to the theory of farmers' limited rationality and the theory of production factors, an analytical framework was constructed to select honeysuckle, scutellaria, forsythia and bupleurum for COVID-19 demand varieties. Based on 454 samples of pharmaceutical farmers from authentic production areas, the multivariate disordered Logit model was used for empirical analysis. The results showed that(1) Both small-scale and large-scale pharmaceutical farmers tended to make the decision of "area invariability", while medium-sized pharmaceutical farmers tended to make the decision of "area enlargement".(2) Price expectation, labor force input, land input, organization entry, technology input and risk preference had a significant positive influence on the decision behavior of pharmaceutical farmers. Whether part-time employment, planting area and planting years had significant negative effects on drug farmers' planting decision-making behavior. (3)The influencing factors of decision-making behavior of different scale drug farmers were different. Among them, planting with business order had a significant positive effect on small-scale pharmaceutical farmers, and the expected increase in price and policy support had a significant positive impact on the medium-scale drug farmers, while the high labor cost and difficult technology acquisition had a significant negative impact on the medium-scale drug farmers. The expected increase in price had a significant positive impact on the large-scale pharmaceutical farmers, while the high labor cost, high land transfer fee and difficult financing had a significant negative impact on the large-scale pharmaceutical farmers. To summary, according to the demand of COVID-19, Chinese medicinal materials farmers have the subjective intention to expand the planting area, but it is restricted by the objective input of production factors, and the restricting factors of different scale of Chinese medicinal materials farmers are different. Different plans should be formulated for drug farmers of different scales to guide them to expand the planting area, so as to ensure stable production and supply of Chinese medicinal materials in shortage of epidemic diseases.
Key words:  COVID-19  pharmaceutical farmers  planting decision behavior  prospective earnings  input of production factors  multivariate Logit model
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