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引用本文:李娜,霍治国,钱锦霞,周晓宇,史源香.山西省干旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业资源与区划,2021,42(5):100~107
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山西省干旱灾害风险评估与区划
李娜1,霍治国2,3,钱锦霞1,周晓宇4,史源香5
1.山西省气象台,太原 030006;2.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;3.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京 210044;4.沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳 110016;5.山西省气象信息中心,太原 030006
摘要:
目的 分析山西省干旱灾害风险的关键作用因子,并进行风险评估和区划,对于提升该地干旱灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻干旱损失具有重要指导意义。方法 文章利用改进的相对湿润度指数、DEM资料、地形坡度资料和1990—2016年以县(市)为单元的行政区域的人口密度、GDP、人均GDP、耕地面积等社会经济数据来定量化评价山西干旱风险,从干旱灾害致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱性、承灾体的易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取因子,构建相应的指数模型并分析其空间分布状况,在此基础上进一步构建山西省干旱灾害风险综合评估模型,并基于GIS 绘制山西省干旱灾害风险区划图。结果 山西省干旱致灾因子危险性呈北高南低的趋势,大同、朔州、忻州北部和西部、太原南部的干旱致灾因子危险性最强;孕灾环境脆弱性呈东西两侧高、中间低的趋势,而承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力均呈东西两侧低、中间高的趋势;从干旱灾害风险区划图可以看出,山西省干旱风险总体呈北高南低,从西北向东南递减的趋势。高风险区主要分布在大同、朔州东部,较高风险区包括朔州西部、忻州中西部、太原大部,吕梁大部、晋中西部、临汾中部、运城西部为中风险区,临汾西部、晋中大部、长治东北部为较低风险区,临汾东部、运城东部、晋城大部、长治西部和南部风险最低。结论 山西省干旱灾害的精细化风险区划,可为相关区域有效地开展抗旱活动提供定量化依据,增强干旱灾害防御的科学性、实用性和可操作性。
关键词:  干旱  风险分析  区划  致灾因子  山西省
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210512
分类号:P429
基金项目:重大自然灾害监测预警与防范重点专项“林果水旱灾害监测预警与风险防范技术研究”(2017YFC1502801);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金项目“气候变化背景下粮油作物气象灾害指标构建及演变规律研究”(2018KJ012)
RISK ANALYSIS AND ZONING OF DROUGHT DISASTER IN SHANXI
Li Na1, Huo Zhiguo2,3, Qian Jinxia1, Zhou Xiaoyu4, Shi Yuanxiang5
1.Shanxi Meteorological Observatory, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;3.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China;4.Shenyang Regional Climate Center of Liaoning, Shenyang 110016, Liaoning, China;5.Shanxi Meteorological Information Center, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
Abstract:
This research is intended to explore the key factors of drought disaster and analyze hazard assessment and regionalization, which is of great guiding significance to improve the regional risk management and decision-making level, and to further reduce drought loss in Shanxi. To give a quantitative risk assessment of drought disaster in Shanxi, the drought risk assessment indicator system and models of drought risk were established from disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster environment, vulnerability of disaster bearing body, and ability of disaster prevention and reduction in this paper, by using of modified relative moisture index, which was based on the relative moisture index, digital elevation model(DEM), topographic slope data, and socio-economic data, such as population density, GDP, real GDP per capita and cultivated area from 1990 to 2016, taking the county as a unit. Furthermore, the assessment indicators for disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster environment, vulnerability of disaster bearing body, ability of disaster prevention and reduction were constructed and the spatial distribution were analyzed. Then the integrated assessment model for drought disaster was established. Based on this, the risk zoning of drought disaster in Shanxi were drawn by a geographical information system (GIS). The results showed that the assessment indicator for disaster-inducing factors of drought was higher in the north, lower in the south, and the most severe areas were mainly distributed in Datong, Shuozhou, the north and west part of Xinzhou, and the south of Taiyuan. The assessment indicator for sensitivity of disaster environment in the east and west area was generally higher than that in the middle area, while the assessment indicators for vulnerability of disaster bearing body and ability of disaster prevention and reduction in the east and west area were generally lower than that in the middle area. The distribution of integrated risk indicators for drought disaster reflected that drought risk was more serious in the north than in the south, and decreasing from northwest to southeast. The extremely high risk areas were mainly distributed in Datong and the east of Shuozhou, and the western part of Shuozhou, the middle and the west of Xinzhou, the most areas of Taiyuan were high risk areas. The most areas of lvliang, the west of Jinzhong and Yuncheng, the middle of Linfen were medium risk areas. The west of Linfen, the most areas of Jinzhong and the northeastern part of Changzhi were low risk areas. The east of Linfen and Yuncheng, the most areas of Jincheng, the west and south of Changzhi had the lowest level of risk. It concludes that the risk zoning of drought disaster in Shanxi could be used to provide quantitative basis for the development of effective drought resistance activities, and made drought prevention and disaster resistance more scientific, increasing practicability and maneuverability.
Key words:  drought  risk analysis  regionalization  disaster-inducing factors  Shanxi province
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