| 摘要: |
| 目的 在全球大豆主要生产国产量、贸易量归纳整理基础上，结合中国大豆需求分析，对中美贸易摩擦背景下中国大豆进口潜力进行分析。方法 根据多年统计数据分析了1964—2017年间世界大豆产量和贸易状况，在世界各国大豆出口能力以及中国可能的进口潜力分析基础上，得出中美贸易摩擦背景下中国大豆进口可能的数量缺口。结果 不购买美国大豆情况下，按照近年需求量不变进行分析，中国大豆需求缺口为3 087.1万t；当前中国能够从美国以外的其他国家购买大豆的最大增量为2 731.7万t，能够弥补大豆缺口的88.5%；剩余的355.4万t缺口需要采用其他方式予以解决。需要指出的是，文章的计算是基于比较理想的条件下，国际贸易对中国大豆需求的满足程度。由于市场价格、垄断、出口国产量的实际状况，最大购买量实际上是很难满足的。结论 本着独立自主的原则，从提高国产大豆产量、增加替代作物产量、降低大豆刚性需求等方面入手，才是解决大豆需求缺口的主要途径。 |
| 关键词: 中美贸易摩擦 大豆 产量格局 进口潜力 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20180511 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目“农作物长势监测系统（CGMS）遥感同化应用研究”1610132016067中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目“农作物长势监测系统（CGMS）遥感同化应用研究”（1610132016067） |
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| Analysis on the potential of soybean imports of China under the background of Sino-US trade friction |
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Teng Fei,Wang Limin,Liu Jia
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Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing 100081，China
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| Abstract: |
| Purpose The Chinese soybean import potential in the context of Sino-US trade war is analyzed，based on the analysis of the production and trade volume of the major soybean producing countries in the world，combined with the analysis of China’s soybean demand.Methods The paper estimates the possible demand gap of soybean imports in China under the background of Sino-US trade war，by analyzing the 54 years statistical data of the world soybean production and trade from 1964 to 2017，the export capacity of countries all over the world，and the import potential of China.Results Under the condition of not purchasing soybean from USA，and future demand of soybean would be as stable as that of recent years，the demand gap of soybean of China will be 30，871，000 metric tons；the maximum increased soybean import from other countries could be 27，317，000 metric tons，which fills up 88.5% of the soybean demand gap；the remaining 3，554，000 metric tons of the demand gap have to be filled by other means. It is necessary to point out that，the calculations in the current paper are based on an ideal condition that the other trading countries can ideally meet the soybean demand of China. However，due to the actual conditions such as market price，monopoly，and production outputs of exporting countries，it is very difficult to meet the maximum estimated purchasing amount of China.Conclusion Based on the principle of independence，the major approaches to solve the soybean demand gap of China is to improve domestic soybean production output，increase the output of substitute products，and reduce the rigid demand of soybean of the country. |
| Key words: Sino-US trade frictions soybean production pattern import potential |
